In The Art and Science of Running, Dr. Jack Daniels defines the "Five Ingredients of Success" as ability, motivation, opportunity, direction, and luck. I can't argue with the first three ingredients. If someone is unmotivated, or cannot find the time, or has no ability to begin with, then they probably won't be a successful runner (although success is obviously a relative term, and there must be some basic yet meaningful level of "success" for runners at all levels of ability).
Luck, I think, is certainly important when we consider individual races. All competitive runners have had days when, for whatever reason, we perform below our fitness level OR we turn in a breakout performance and accomplish something we barely thought possible. If physiologists / sports psychologists could accurately account for this variance, I'd love to hear the explanation. Until then I'll call it luck.
At the same time, luck can sort of lose its importance over longer periods of racing. If we race enough, then we'll have enough of the good days to establish that, over time, we've been successful. So I think luck is an important ingredient for specific races but not so significant when we look at several months and years of competition.
Finally, Daniels mentions "direction" - and this got me wondering: What is the best running direction that I've ever been given? I think John Kellogg and Robert Johnson are onto something here, and if I were to distill their advice down to two words, they would be: Consistency and patience.
